Decision making process

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For a specific geographical region and season of interest, the following process can be followed to incorporate seasonal predictions within key operational and planning strategies: 

Stage 1: Analysis of seasonal prediction skill compared to information based on climatology alone, for wind speed and wind power one and two months in advance of season of interest. 
Description: By understanding the ability of climate models to predict the timeframe and geographical region of interest better than current practices based on climatology alone, it is possible to evaluate the usefulness of wind resource predictions for decision-making strategies. 

Stage 2: 2 months in advance: seasonal prediction of wind speed. 
Description: This prediction provides information on average wind speed, and average p10 and p90 values based on seasonal averages for the upcoming season of interest. 

Stage 3: Seasonal predictions of wind power capacity. 
Description: Wind speed predictions can be translated into wind power capacity predictions using the industry-standard approach based on typical wind farm characteristics (these can be refined if real wind farm data is provided). 

Stage 4: Evaluation of climate-related opportunities and risks for decision of interest. 
Description: Geographical regions where wind resource predictions are able to improve on climatological information alone, and where wind resources demonstrate an increase or decrease compared to the past can be highlighted. These regions represent those where potential opportunities or risks can be identified for the upcoming season of interest. 

Stage 5: Inclusion in operational or planning strategy. 
Description: Where prediction skill two months in advance (from stage 1) is demonstrated, wind resource predictions can be included within the strategies of decision-makers. 

Stage 6: 1 month in advance: refine decision process based on an update of the predictions. 
Description: Where prediction skill one month in advance (from stage 1) is demonstrated, wind resource predictions can be updated to further strengthen the strategies of decision-making. 

Stage 7: Execute strategy based on an optimal understanding and management of future wind resource variability. 
Description: Decision-makers can use wind resource predictions to minimise future climate-related risk and exploit climate-related opportunities, ultimately leading to potential cost-saving.

 

Decision making process

analysis of seasonal prediction skill compared to information based on climatology alone
2 months in advance:
seasonal prediction of wind speed
seasonal predictions of wind power capacity
evaluation of climate-related opportunities and risks for decision of interest
inclusion in operational or planning strategy
1 month in advance:
refine decision process based on an update of the predictions
execute strategy based on an optimal understanding and management of future wind resource variability

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RESILIENCE aims to strengthen the efficiency and security of wind power supply within energy networks, by providing robust information of the future variability in wind power resources based on probabilistic climate predictions.