Vulnerability information

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The vulnerability information provided here based on a basic traffic light-like ranking with three categories: 'high vulnerability' (+++), 'moderate vulnerability' (++) and 'low vulnerability' (+) is qualitative, not normalized and unweighted. For that reason no final assessment of vulnerability is done. Additionally, vulnerability characterizations colored in grey are not in the scope of this study but relevant for the specific problem. For details on the vulnerability assessment concept, methodology and classification systems please refer to the complete report attached at the bottom of the page, as well as to the deliverable D11.2 of EUPORIAS ("White paper on sector specific vulnerabilities"), which can be found at here.

Vulnerability characterization

Referring to the analysis of the critical situation, decision-making processes and critical climate conditions, two different vulnerabilities can be identified (see the attachment below).

Vulnerability to the variability in wind speed (weather scale). The critical situation is characterized by power supply demand deviations which become relevant at frequencies of 50Hz. The interlinked decision-making process implies the identification and allocation of suitable power reserves to balance expected gaps in power supply and demand and happens within the time-scale of the critical climate conditions. Critical climate conditions are highly variable wind speeds.

  • Scale of critical climate conditions: 30 mins - 36 hours

  • Temporal scope for climate information: hours - days

Vulnerability to below average wind speeds (S2D scale). The critical situation is characterized by low-wind periods with no explicit physically defined threshold. The interlinked decision-making process implies the organization and management of appropriate power supply for compensation of lacking wind power which requires variable lead-times with a minimum of around 2 weeks. Critical climate conditions are periods of extremely low wind speeds.

  • Scale of critical climate conditions: > 1-2 weeks

  • Temporal scope for climate information: 4 weeks

Vulnerability assessment for S2D-vulnerability

Climate-impact type (++): the ‘climate impact type’ can be classified as ‘statistical climate impact’: wind speed variabilities do affect the system of concern already on the small temporal scale (minutes to hours) and can be balanced individually on the same time-scale. However, longer periods of time with a critical share or number of such individual short-term impacts may become critical since the capacity of balancing lack in wind power may be exceeded. Information on mean wind speeds is helpful at which information on wind still periods would be desired.

Role of climate (+): the role of climate is that of a production factor since it is only one of many sources of energy with a relative low share. At the best potential impacts can be completely prevented by compensation measures.

Priority of scale (+): decision-making processes on seasonal scale are of secondary importance. Short-term balancing (i.e. weather scale) is of greater relevance and a robust grid (a matter of long-term decision-making) can moderate the severity of a seasonal critical situations.

Success criteria (+): the success criteria are in general of economic nature. Especially as long as the share of wind power on power production is small. The general lack of ethical issues or societal interests moderates the severity of a seasonal critical situation.

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RESILIENCE aims to strengthen the efficiency and security of wind power supply within energy networks, by providing robust information of the future variability in wind power resources based on probabilistic climate predictions.